In this week’s BVA Happenings, BVA Deputy Director of Government Relations Alek Libbin provides additional clarity to the recent historic removal of Representative Kevin McCarthy (R-CA-20) from the House speakership.
Last week, the House of Representatives did the unprecedented: It voted out the chamber’s Speaker. And, last night, likely successor Representative Steve Scalise (R-LA-1) withdrew from the race after securing a majority of the Republican support he needed but lacking support of the full House. Why is all this happening? What does it mean? And what happens next?
When the Republicans took control of the House after the 2022 midterms, they did so with a slim majority of ten seats, the fifth smallest majority in history.
The candidate for Speaker does not need a majority of the party to become Speaker but a majority of the full chamber. While the exact negotiation process for becoming Speaker is known only to the members of the House, Kevin McCarthy had to make many concessions to secure the role in the first place. The key concession he made in this case, and the one responsible for his removal, was that any member could call for a motion to vacate the speaker’s chair. A point of reference for this would be for one employee, any employee, of a company of 435 being able to call for a vote to fire the company president.
After Speaker McCarthy had agreed to a 45-day continuing resolution to fund the government, relying on Democratic votes, Representative Matt Gaetz (R-FL-1) called for that very vote to oust him. The removal was successful when eight Republicans joined the entire Democratic House membership to vote McCarthy out.
The House of Representatives cannot conduct any legislative work without an elected Speaker. While there is a Speaker Pro Tempore, Congressman Patrick McHenry (R-NC-10), he is acting without any precedent, so it is unclear what powers he does and does not have.
The role of Speaker Pro Tempore was created after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks to enable the House to function in the event of an emergency. McHenry was chosen by Kevin McCarthy who, upon being elected, created a secret line of succession that was shared with the Clerk of the House. In theory, McHenry holds the power of the Speakership but is not in the Presidential line of succession as McCarthy was.
McHenry is limited in his power to perform any meaningful action. So, until a new Speaker is chosen, or McCarthy is reelected, the House effectively cannot pass any laws.
What this means for you is simple. All bills affecting VA, such as the Major Richard Star Act, are put on hold and cannot be moved. However, VA health care will continue to function, and you will continue to be able to receive care and access services.
Events are occurring rapidly, and the House could choose a Speaker as soon as today or remain without one for an extended period. With Scalise out, only Representative Jim Jordan (R-OH-3) is left standing but in a similar situation as Scalise was. Speculation abounds, with four possibilities: 1) GOP members join the Democrats in selecting a Speaker, 2) Speaker Pro Tempore McHenry becomes the Speaker permanently, 3) Republicans rally unanimously behind Jordan or another candidate, or 4) McCarthy regains the Speakership.
The absolute drop-dead deadline for a Speaker to be selected is November 17 when the 45-day Continuing Resolution elapses and the government could shut down. If a new Speaker is not elected and the Speaker Pro Tempore does not assume the authority to pass a budget, the scenario becomes the worst case. This is because not only will there be no Speaker but also no one empowered to negotiate with the Senate or the President. Further, the Senate cannot craft the budget because the Origins Clause of the Constitution requires that all appropriations bills originate in the House of Representatives.
Personally, I believe this will drag on well into next week, if not longer, and no favorite will emerge anytime soon. Further, it’s unclear how desirable the Speakership is at this point. A potential speaker has many challenges in this Congress. The slim majority is the reason behind the McCarthy fall and it appears that the slim majority is unwilling to wave the one-person call for dismissal vote, meaning that the new Speaker would be under the same threat of removal. Speaker Boehner famously stepped down from the role after the Freedom Caucus of 30-40 members made his job impossible. He could not negotiate with President Barack Obama and routinely had to fight tooth and nail to pass routine budget bills. He decided that enough was enough. A new Speaker would face the same frustrations, but this time with a dozen members who know that they can call for removal at a moment’s notice.
McCarthy was regarded by some as the weakest Speaker in a hundred years because of the concessions he made, concessions responsible for his removal. With a handful of members refusing to relinquish those concessions, the new Speaker will likely be just as weak. It is unclear who is capable of this position and, at the same time, able to win the votes to become Speaker.
The only thing that is now clear, at least for the time being, is that the House of Representatives is in chaos.
